Autonomous car market to be worth US$102bn by 2030 – report

6 May 2015

Despite still being in early development, a new report has estimated that, by 2030, the market for cars that can assist drivers in decision-making will be worth more than US$100bn.

The report, undertaken by Lux Research on advanced driver assist systems (ADAS), shows that, in just 15 years, the market will increase nearly 50 times from its current 2015 estimate of US$2.4bn.

According to its research, the analysts categorised ‘advanced’ as any system that allows the car to operate independently while the driver sits in the driver’s seat — so includes functions such as lane tracking, responsive braking to events around the car and adaptive cruise control.

The report also looks at more basic ADAS systems, such as automatic parking, which Lux Research understandably predicts will be the first market to take off, with its estimates putting it at being worth US$22.7bn by 2030, while the advanced systems will be worth US$73bn in the same time period.

Autonomous car Tesla

Tesla’s Autopilot feature allows it to read lane traffic autonomously

Driverless cars won’t be around by 2030

The research, however, dismisses the idea that we will have driverless cars by 2030, due to what it says is an obvious lack of prototypes and high levels of bureaucracy that is involved in getting them legally on the road.

However, this conclusion might be debated, with examples of a number of driverless vehicles entering the market, most recently seen with Daimler’s announcement that it has gotten permission to test its driverless truck on the roads of Nevada, USA.

The downside to all of this technology, Lux Research says, is cost, with these new features expected to add US$527 to the cost of every new car by 2020, which will decrease slightly to US$481 in 2030.

The biggest contributing factor of costs will be from the car’s software estimated at US$367 per car in 2020 and US$481 in 2030.

Autonomous vehicle driving image via Steve Jurvetson/Flickr

Colm Gorey was a senior journalist with Silicon Republic