Market analyst Gartner Dataquest is once again forecasting a modest increase in global PC shipments for the first quarter of 2003.
The company estimates shipments around the world will reach 33.2 million units – a 4.8pc increase from the same period last year.
Its full year prediction is that sales will increase by 7.9pc to 138.7 million units.
Late last year the company forecast that shipments would grow in 2003 by 7.6pc or 137.7 million shipments.
However, the company is warning that the figures could depend on continued recovery in the economy and that a possible war on Iraq or economic downturn could unravel its expectations.
In a statement, Gartner analyst Gerorge Schiffler said: “In 2003, the outcome of the US-Iraq confrontation will be the key factor influencing the timing of an economic recovery and that timing in turn will impact sales.”
As reported in siliconrepublic.com in December, the International Data Corporation (IDC) forecast an 8pc growth for this year due to strong public sector spending and continued improvement in the consumer sector.
Gartner is once again claiming that strong recovery in the industry will depend on a strong replacement cycle, which it doesn’t think will happen until the fourth quarter of 2003.
Dell computers has said that there are hundreds of thousands of PCs that are over three years old.
By Suzanne Byrne
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