Image: © mark_gusev/Stock.adobe.com
The Rate project will conduct a survey of car purchasing preferences to help policy makers in reducing transport emissions.
Researchers at Trinity College Dublin are developing new tools to predict the next generation of private vehicles in Ireland.
This research project – called Rate – will involve a nation-wide survey of car purchasing preferences to determine how various factors such as fuel type and vehicle cost impact purchasing decisions.
The researchers will also provide estimates of the potential growth of electric vehicles in the Irish market and the potential reduction in emissions. The research project has received funding from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland.
The overall goal of the Rate project is to assist in the development of next-generation car stock models and enable evidence-based policy making for Ireland’s future transport systems.
“Modelling emissions in the transport sector requires vast amounts of data, and the accuracy of the modelling process is very much dependent on the quality of the base data,” said Trinity’s Prof Eleanor Denny, principal investigator for Rate. “In 2022, it was estimated that 69pc of trips in Ireland were made by private car, highlighting the importance of having an accurate car stock model.
“The best practice for modelling car stock combines historical data with behavioural purchasing preferences. The Rate project overcomes this gap by developing a state-of-the-art national car stock model incorporating both purchasing preferences and historical data.”
Trinity’s Prof Brian Caulfield said Ireland’s 2023 Climate Action Plan aims to decrease transport emissions by 50pc compared to 2018 levels and that it is “vital” to have the most up-to-date tools to monitor the success of interventions and to project future trends.
“Our research will provide policymakers in Ireland with a state-of-the-art model for predicting future car types in Ireland,” Caulfield said. “The model will include the capability of examining how changing various costs and tax policies could result in a change in purchasing behaviour, and ultimately examine emission-reduction strategies.”
Data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) suggests the uptake of electric vehicles is on the rise in Ireland. CSO figures released last October showed that there had been a 52pc increase in the number of new electric cars licensed in Ireland in the first nine months of 2023.
In the final tally for 2023, new electric car numbers increased by 45pc compared to 2022. Moreover, 19pc of all new cars licensed last year were electric, compared with 15pc in 2022.
Find out how emerging tech trends are transforming tomorrow with our new podcast, Future Human: The Series. Listen now on Spotify, on Apple or wherever you get your podcasts.
