Ireland’s goods exports up 3.6pc in August: not topped since November 2012 – Davy

15 Oct 2013

Irish goods exports volumes rose by 3.6pc in the month in August, and July’s figure was revised up to 4pc from 2.9pc. This is the highest level for such exports not seen since November 2012, according to figures from Davy Research.

Goods exports are still down 13.7c on the year, however. It would seem that this has, in part, been triggered by the hit to exports during the year relating to the pharmaceutical patent cliff.

Although, according to analysts at Davy, the figures point to strong recovery in the net trade element of GDP in Q3.

Further broken down, figures from Davy based on the latest analysis on Irish exports for Q3 show that a flat September would leave exports up 6.3pc over the quarter following the 1.7pc rise in Q2.

Then, broken down in nominal terms, goods exports were €7.6bn in August, up from €7.3bn in July.

Davy’s analysts said that after the weak start to the year, the level of Irish goods exports is “slowly” picking up.

Goods imports also rose on the month to €4.4bn from €4.1bn.

It said this means the trade in goods surplus remains at €3.2bn, unchanged on July.

And, in terms of the bigger picture, the Irish export sector appears to be “slowly recovering”.

The level of goods exports has picked up gradually through 2013, according to Davy.

Irish industrial production

The data from this area reveals that output in the traditional manufacturing sector is “slowly recovering” and even outperforming the closely correlated European cycle in industrial production.

Traditional sector output was up 3.4pc year-on-year in the three months to August, the fastest pace since early 2011, according to Davy.

Output in the multinational sector has been exceptionally volatile, affected by the pharmaceutical patent cliff.

Modern sector output was down 5.5pc in the three months to August.

Finally, Davy’s analysts are of the opinion that further hits to the trade numbers cannot be discounted before year-end.

This, it said, is reflected in its new Irish forecast titled Recovery in Irish economy gaining traction.

Davy has pencilled in a slowdown in export growth of 1pc for this year from 1.6pc in 2012 before recovering to 3.1pc in 2014.

Irish exports and taking to the global stage image via Shutterstock

Carmel Doyle was a long-time reporter with Silicon Republic